Bitcoin is taking market share from gold as investors hedge against a decline in the value of the fiat currency, JPMorgan analysts said in a research note this week.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows for three consecutive months through May, while gold ETFs are still struggling to regain the outflows that followed the Iranian conflict in March, according to Cluster.
As mentioned by Cryptopolitan In March, the divergence began with Bitcoin rising 11% during the early period of the Iranian conflict, while gold fell about 5% and the S&P 500 fell about 3%.
The May update extends this pattern. Gold’s failure to regain outflows from February and March is what makes the structural shift visible.
The frequency of buying strategy is the driver of demand
Institutional exposure to Bitcoin has expanded sharply through Strategy, the world’s largest Bitcoin holder.
JPMorgan estimated that if the strategy maintains its current pace of accumulation, the company could purchase approximately $30 billion worth of Bitcoin in 2026, For each block.
This will exceed the approximately $22 billion the company purchased in both 2024 and 2025.
The strategy has added 145,834 BTC year to date, worth roughly $11 billion, with much of the buying occurring below an average cost basis of about $75,000.
The company now owns 818,334 Bitcoin worth more than $65 billion. The strategy “appears to have re-accelerated its Bitcoin purchases in April, extending a 2026 pattern of increasingly opportunistic buying, responding to market conditions and funding availability,” JPMorgan analysts wrote.
TD Cowen raised the price target on the strategy to $395 from $385 earlier this week.
ETF flows confirm the institutional thesis
U.S.-based bitcoin ETFs have recorded five straight days of net inflows totaling about $1.7 billion as of Wednesday.
BlackRock’s IBIT led the last trading session with inflows of $134.6 million. The ETF sector is now headed for its sixth straight week of positive flows, the longest streak since July 2025.
The recent influx of Bitcoin ETFs highlights deepening institutional optimism in Bitcoin as a long-term strategic allocation rather than a short-term speculative trade.
Nick Rock, LVRG Research Director.
Bitcoin traded near $80,120 during the JPMorgan analysis period, up 26% over the past three months, and has rebounded from a low of nearly $62,000 in February.
Goldman stays with gold
Not every Wall Street bank agrees with JPMorgan’s reading.
Goldman Sachs recently raised its year-end gold forecast to $5,400 per ounce, citing strong demand from the central bank and lower long-term gold volatility.
Bitcoin has seen declines exceeding 50% at least four times since 2017, while gold’s largest historical drawdowns approached the 45 to 50% range.
JPMorgan’s volatility ratio between bitcoin and gold is about 1.5, an all-time low, and the bank said the number may continue to narrow as institutional adoption deepens.
The bank-bank divide is the structural story under the data: Two of the largest U.S. institutions are taking opposing positions on the same hedging issue, with retail capital flowing through ETF wrappers in real time.
The next test is whether Bitcoin ETF inflows continue through the second half of 2026 and whether gold inflows stabilize as geopolitical tensions ease.
Don’t just read cryptocurrency news. Understand that. Subscribe to our newsletter. It’s free.
