Another week and another milestone for Kalshi. Last week, the prediction market platform processed its highest weekly volume across political, macro, cryptocurrency and geopolitical event contracts, not counting any sports. The growth in non-sporting volumes in Calci has been amazing when you look at the numbers. One year ago, that number reached $35.2 million. Now valued at $1 billion, this equates to growth of about 28 times in twelve months. This data comes at a time when the easiest criticism of Calcio was that the platform was essentially a structured sportsbook with additional steps.
The $1 billion figure also brings the competitive picture back into focus. Polymarket, which has historically been a non-sports prediction market, processed $442.3 million in weekly non-sports trading volume during the same period. Kalshi’s non-mathematical book is now 2.2 times larger than Polymarket’s, a number that seemed unimaginable even a month ago.
Lane Polymarket used to own it
The competitive picture in the forecasting market space has been well segmented over the past year. The figures showed that Calci was seen as a platform for sports contracts while Polymarket controlled everything else. In fact, data from Artemis shows that Polymarket maintained dominance in terms of volume without sports until the last week of April. The first quarter of this year saw Polymarket generate $16.8 billion in volume without sports compared to $5.5 billion for Calci.
However, this trend has changed radically since May. Two weeks into May, Kalshi is now in the lead here with $1.7 billion processed compared to Polymarkets’ $688.9 million. Kalshi is currently 2.5x ahead in the Polymarket category on which it has built its name.
What drives growth?
The mixture is broad and not concentrated. Aggregate contracts tied to Fed decisions, CPI prints, and interest rate calls were a flat product during the year. The Iranian conflict that lasted into late February and March led to a large volume of geopolitical events, including the market for the overthrow of Khamenei that Kalci eventually froze with $77 million in disputed positions that remain unpaid. Political markets are starting to improve ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, with the Los Angeles mayor and California governor’s races and the contracts for control of the House of Representatives both making significant influxes. Cryptocurrency markets are growing around BTC and ETH price levels as traders use them as binary hedges rather than options.
Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, has been frank about the long-term goal of… Financing everything. Last week was the first real evidence that the non-sports side of the platform might actually support that thesis without the NFL doing the heavy lifting.
Why does it matter now?
Just everything $1 billion Series F closed at $22 billion valuationLed by Kuato. The idea was based on an annual trading volume of up to $178 billion and an increase in institutional flow by 800% in six months. Mathematical volume helps with that key number, but it’s also where every statewide legal challenge lives. More than a half-dozen states including Nevada, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Arizona, and Wisconsin have moved against Calci Sports through cease-and-desist orders, injunctions, or active lawsuits. The non-mathematical book falls outside this intersection.
With the 2026 midterm elections approaching, the FIFA World Cup starting in June, and the 2028 presidential markets already attracting open interest, the question is whether $1 billion in non-sports weekly trading volume is the new minimum or a one-week high tied to the overall calendar. Sport gave Kalshi its size. The non-mathematical number is what tells you that the company may survive what comes after it.
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