Lemonade Stock (LMND): What to Expect from Wednesday’s Earnings

TLDR

• Lemonade reports first-quarter earnings on April 29, before the bell
• Wall Street expects revenue of $254.03 million, up 68% year over year
• EPS loss of $0.58 per share is expected, an improvement of 32.6% year over year.
• Morgan Stanley upgraded LMND to buy with a price target of $85, citing the potential for self-driving vehicles to be insured
• Options traders are pricing in a move of approximately 14.66% in either direction based on the results

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Lemonade has been through roughly 2026 so far. The stock is down about 8% year to date, dragged down by inflation concerns, jitters in the real estate market, and questions about its growth trajectory. But Wednesday’s first-quarter earnings report could quickly change the mood.

Lemonade, Inc., LMND

Wall Street expects revenue of $254.03 million for the first quarter, which represents a 68% jump from the same quarter last year. That’s a big number — and a step up from the 53% growth Lemonade posted in Q4 2025.

The expected EPS loss is $0.58 per share. Although this is still a loss, it represents a 32.6% improvement year over year. lemonade Not profitable yet, but the direction of travel is important here.

Options markets take the report seriously. Traders are pricing in a ~14.66% move in either direction following the results. This is a wide range, and reflects the real uncertainty heading into Wednesday.

Lemonade has form when it comes to multiplication estimates. It has exceeded analyst expectations in recent quarters in terms of revenue and EPS, so the bar is there — and it’s been surpassed before.

Going into this report, outstanding premiums were $1.24 billion at the end of the fourth quarter, up 31% year over year. This extended nine consecutive quarters of accelerating growth, and is one of the cleaner data points in the bull case.

Customer growth is another. Lemonade added about 550,000 new customers in 2025, nearly 35% more than the previous year. Growth came across the pet, auto and home lines, showing that the model is not dependent on a single product.

Tesla deal in focus

One of the biggest storylines heading into profits is Lemonade’s insurance product Tesla Full self-driving users. The company has promised to reduce per-mile rates by about 50% for FSD drivers, positioning itself early in the field of self-driving vehicle insurance.

Morgan Stanley analyst Bob Huang recently upgraded LMND from Hold to Buy, raising his price target from $80 to $85. The upgrade relied heavily on Lemonade’s early entry into autonomous vehicle coverage as a potential long-term advantage.

What analysts are watching

Beyond the headline numbers, analysts will be watching for any update on bad debt and interest expense trends – both of which weighed on fourth-quarter results. Growing concerns about interest rates linked to geopolitical pressures, including the ongoing conflict with Iran, add another layer of scrutiny.

Their peers in the property and casualty insurance space have already informed. Stewart Information Services beat estimates by 4.7% and traded up 3.9%. First American Financial gained 2.4% and rose 3.5%. The broader sector rose 6.7% over the past month.

Lemonade has surpassed that, up 12.3% over the same period, although it remains negative year over year.

The consensus analyst rating on LMND stands at – two Buys, four Holds, and two Sells. The average price target is $54.40, which implies a downside from the current price of $65.95. Morgan Stanley’s $85 target is the highest on the Street.

Lemonade reports ahead of its April 29 opening.