Oil prices rise as Trump threatens Iran again: How high can they go?


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TLDR

  • Brent crude rose above $111 a barrel, with WTI approaching $108, recording a third straight day of gains.
  • Trump posted a warning on Truth Social, saying Iran must act “quickly” or face destruction
  • The US and Israel are reportedly preparing to resume potential military strikes as early as next week
  • Iraqi oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 10 million barrels in April, down from 93 million a month.
  • A drone struck a UAE nuclear facility over the weekend, raising concerns about regional energy infrastructure

Oil prices rose for a third straight day on Monday as President Donald Trump renewed his threats against Iran, warning that time is running out to reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude rose above $111 a barrel after rising about 8% last week. WTI crude oil moved towards $108.

Last Day Financing for Brent Crude (BZ=F)
Last Day Financing for Brent Crude (BZ=F)

Trump posted on Truth Social on Sunday: “For Iran, the clock is ticking, and they better act fast, or they won’t have anything left. Time is of the essence!”

The United States and Israel said they were preparing for possible strikes

According to a report by The Times of Israel, the United States and Israel are actively developing military plans for the possible resumption of coordinated attacks on Iran as early as next week.

Trump met with the national security team at his golf club in Virginia on Saturday. He is expected to meet again with Vice President J.D. Vance, White House envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe in the Situation Room on Tuesday.

An unnamed senior Israeli official said that forces were preparing for imminent hostilities. The official said: “The Americans realize that negotiations with Iran will not lead to anything.” “We are preparing for days to weeks of fighting and awaiting Trump’s final decision.”

Ziv Elkin, a member of the security cabinet, confirmed that Israel has ready targets. “We have targets we want to hit,” he told Kan Radio.

Hormuz closure continues to pressure oil supplies

oil Oil prices have risen more than 50% since the United States and Israel first attacked Iran in late February. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off supplies to producers in the Persian Gulf.

Iraqi oil exports through the Strait fell to just 10 million barrels in April, down from a monthly baseline of 93 million barrels.


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Morgan Stanley said last week that the market was in a “race against time,” warning that factors holding back prices could collapse if the waterway remained closed until June.

“The risk premium is likely to remain flat,” said Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Markets. “The markets have seen a lot of headlines about possible solutions, but there is no reliable mechanism yet to completely de-risk Hormuz supplies.”

The negotiations, mediated by Pakistan and supported by China, have faltered. The Iranian Mehr Agency said that Washington did not make “tangible concessions” while it was seeking concessions that it failed to obtain during the war.

Iran’s Fars News Agency reported that the United States presented five conditions to Tehran, including transferring 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium to the United States, imposing restrictions on one active Iranian nuclear facility, and not releasing frozen Iranian assets.

Drone attack over the weekend raises concerns

A drone struck an electrical generator outside the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in the UAE on Sunday, causing a fire. The UAE said that there were no casualties and radiation safety was not affected.

The Trump administration also allowed a waiver on Russian crude sales to expire, increasing pressure on global supplies despite India’s request for an extension.

US intelligence agencies are also investigating a suspected Iranian cyber attack that altered fuel gauge displays at gas stations across multiple US states, although no official source has been identified.


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