Polymarket traders have cut the likelihood of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 to an all-time low, marking a sharp shift in sentiment on the most important piece of cryptocurrency market structure legislation to advance through Congress in years. according to Original reportThe odds declined as Senate negotiations over ethics rulings remained deadlocked, pushing the possibility of a floor vote even further away.
Prediction markets have become a real-time barometer of policy outcomes, and the steady erosion in CLARITY Act odds reflects a deep disbelief that Congress can advance cryptocurrency legislation this year. The bill, designed to clarify which digital assets fall under the jurisdiction of the Securities and Exchange Commission versus the CFTC, has been stuck in procedural limbo for several weeks. What once seemed like a reasonable vote before the summer is now valued as a long shot.
A bill caught in a political binder
The decline in the Polymarket contract stems from a stubborn sticking point: ethical judgments. The exact nature of the dispute remains a mystery, but the Senate calendar is unforgiving. As the midterm elections approach, legislative bandwidth shrinks dramatically. Lawmakers are reluctant to take tough votes on the structure of the cryptocurrency market when more pressing political priorities crowd the agenda.
Earlier this year, A A coordinated campaign by the banking lobby Almost killed the bill before
