Robinhood Stock (HOOD): What’s the return of buying and holding for 5 years

TLDR

• Robinhood reports $4.5 billion in total net revenue for 2025, up 52% ​​year over year.
• Q1 2026 revenue rose 15% to $1.07 billion, with Gold subscribers reaching a record high of 4.3 million
• Analysts have an average 12-month price target of around $112, which is slightly above the current price of around $108.
• The base case price target for 2031 is around $148; The Taurus case goes for approximately $293
• The 2031 probability-weighted model points to ~$156, which would mean ~44% upside from current levels.

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Robinhood (HOOD) stock is trading around $108, and Wall Street is wondering how much it can rise over the next five years.

Robinhood Markets Inc., HUD

The company reported $4.5 billion in total net revenue for 2025, an increase of 52% year over year. Net income was $1.9 billion, and adjusted EBITDA rose 76% to $2.5 billion.

The first quarter of 2026 kept the momentum going. Revenue was $1.07 billion, up 15% year over year. Diluted earnings per share came to $0.38, up 3%. Robinhood The number of gold subscribers increased by 36% to a record level of 4.3 million.

May operating data added more fuel. The number of funded customers rose to 27.7 million, and total platform assets rose to $377 billion – an increase of 48% from the previous year. Net deposits in the first quarter amounted to $17.7 billion.

The platform has expanded beyond retail stock trading. Robinhood now works across options, cryptocurrencies, retirement accounts, banking, credit cards, prediction markets, and private market access.

Bull, base and bear situations

There are three scenarios that determine where HOOD could land by 2031.

On a downturn, revenue is about $6.5 billion, but margin pressure and weak trading volumes limit profits. Using a 22x earnings multiple, the stock could fall to around $35.

The base case puts annual revenue at about $10 billion by 2031. If net margins stabilize near 35% and earnings per share reach $3.90, a 38x multiple supports the price near $148.

Assume the status of a bull Robinhood Builds a much larger financial platform. If revenue hits $14 billion and earnings per share rise to $6.50, a 45x multiple puts the stock near $293.

The probability-weighted model across the three scenarios suggests a 2031 price target of around $156 – roughly 44% upside from current levels, or about 7.5% per year.

What analysts say

Wall Street loves Robinhood but it’s not pounding the table right now.

According to MarketBeat, HOOD carries 18 Buy ratings, 5 Holds, and 0 Sells. The consensus is a moderate buy. But the average 12-month price target is only about $112 — barely above where the stock is today.

This gap tells you that analysts believe in the long-term story but see limited near-term upside after the stock’s sharp rise.

The risks are real. Evaluation extends. Trading income is periodic. Encryption is volatile. Regulatory pressure remains a factor. Major financial companies pose competitive threats.

However, Robinhood has some clear advantages – a large and young customer base, growing subscription revenue through gold, rising platform assets, and an expanded product suite.

A realistic range for 2031, based on current models, is between $150 and $160. The bull case at $293 requires Robinhood to fully implement to become a next-generation financial super app.