XRP price target is at risk

The US Senate officially repealed the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on July 28, 2026, and redirected its agenda toward the Russia sanctions bill and federal nominations, effectively blocking a vote before the Senate recess begins on August 7 — and with it, any near-term legal path to strengthening Ripple’s (XRP) commodity classification into federal law.

This isn’t just a scheduling casualty. It is a structural inflection point for an asset class whose institutional construction, custody products, banks’ balance sheet treatment, and XRP ETF flows depend on legislative permanence that agency-level rulings cannot reliably provide.

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Clarity Act News: How the Senate calendar closed before a cloture vote was introduced

The Clarity Act arrived on the Senate docket on June 1, 2026, under calendar number 423, after it was advanced by the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee on May 14 by a 15-9 vote — all 13 Republicans joined by Democrats Ruben Gallego of Arizona and Angela Alsobrooks of Maryland, both of whom conditioned the broader support on stronger ethics provisions.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune did not introduce a repeal proposal until mid-July, and the bill needed 60 votes to pass that threshold, with confirmed support estimated at 51 votes at shelf time.

Update: The Clarity Act has been delayed further, and the Senate is now prioritizing nominations and the Russia sanctions bill, making it unlikely that cryptocurrency legislation will see time before next week at the earliest. pic.twitter.com/cQakjnv2l5

— CoinDesk (@CoinDesk) July 28, 2026

The odds of Senate approval of the bill peaked at 43% on July 21, rose briefly when the White House signaled its openness to the bill’s ethics provisions, before stabilizing near 42% as the recess deadline approached. Disagreement over the moral requirement — which centered on whether state prosecutors were able to pursue Justice Department enforcement actions — was the final sticking point, as Republicans and the White House withdrew that provision before any agreement could be reached.

Galaxy Digital’s policy research team put the odds of CLARITY becoming law in 2026 being roughly equal or lower, pointing to the multi-step breakdown and reconciliation calculations still needed between the Banking Committee’s draft, the Senate Agriculture Committee’s Digital Commodity Intermediaries Act — which the Agriculture Committee advanced on January 29, 2026, on a 12-11 party-line vote — and the House-passed version (H.R. 3633), which was approved by a majority 12 votes to 11 votes. 294-134 bipartisan majority in July 2025.

XRP price and Standard Chartered terms: What is the legal permanence actually worth?

XRP was trading near $1.08 on Binance as of July 29, down about 8% from the previous week, with a 24-hour range of $1.0450 to $1.0679. The token peaked near $3.40 in mid-2025 and has tracked lower highs and lower lows since then, with a confirmed death cross — the 50-day EMA under the 200-day — still in place.

The ADX reading of 11.2 reflects one of the weakest trend readings of the summer. Readings below 20 indicate a directionless, volatile environment prone to false breakouts.

Standard Chartered’s $8 XRP price target is conditional on cumulative spot inflows from ETFs worth $10 billion, with its analysts attributing between $4 billion and $8 billion of that number specifically to the passage of CLARITY opening up space for institutional product development.

Without a vote before the holiday, the flow scenario will be postponed. XRP price recently fell towards the $1.06-$1.08 range It reflects both the legislative setback and broader risk-off positions ahead of today’s FOMC decision.

Ripple secured agency-level commodities processing for XRP following the settlement of SEC litigation in 2025 and the joint decision of the SEC and CFTC in March 2026 that XRP is not a security — but that status is based on regulatory issuances, not the law. Future management reserves discretion to reconsider. A CLARITY system would incorporate the designation into US law, which would require new legislation to reverse, which is the robustness required by institutional custodians and ETF issuers before committing to product infrastructure.

Macroeconomic overlay: The Fed’s interest rate decision and what sticking tight means

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh chairs its second FOMC meeting today, July 29, where interest rates are widely expected to remain at 3.50%-3.75%. The CME FedWatch Upside Potential reached nearly 38% at the end of last week – the highest reading this session – before pulling back slightly. Bitcoin ETF outflows and broader crypto selling pressures The repricing tracked price expectations, with Bitcoin approaching $63,400 as of Tuesday.

Cautious waiting with language hinting at a September cut could push XRP towards the golden Fibonacci region of $1.10-$1.12. A hawkish statement or a dissenting vote in favor of a rate hike will extend the sell-off towards the next support group at $1.0125 and $0.9711. Neither scenario replaces the legislative stimulus the market has now lost until at least late 2026.

We believe the most important variable for cryptocurrency regulation timelines is not the August recess itself, but the midterm election calendar that follows it: the compressed fall legislative window makes CLARITY structurally vulnerable to slipping into the next Congress, where the entire Senate coalition will need to rebuild from scratch.

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