via prediction markets, on-chain dashboards, And sentiment trackers, a clear majority of Bitcoin investors are positioning themselves for further declines.
Although Bitcoin has since recovered above $60,000, the recent collapse below the level over the weekend has led many cryptocurrency traders to believe there will be another collapse to the eventual bottom. According to cryptocurrency analyst Winter Soldier, 64% of orders on prediction markets are now betting on Bitcoin’s price falling below $50,000 this year.
64% of orders bet on the price of Bitcoin being below $50,000
Polymarket forecasting It is currently pricing in a 64% probability that Bitcoin will reach $55,000 or less before the end of 2026. This forecast was also noted in a bearish call by cryptocurrency analyst Winter Soldier, who noted that 65% of orders in prediction markets are now placed for Bitcoin to fall below $50,000 before the end of the year.
However, the analyst Also compare The current setup is with the previous cycle, when many traders thought the $28,000 level would remain the final bottom. Bitcoin later fell to $19,000, then to $15,000, before the market finally reached the level of fear needed for a true reversal. This is why the analyst believes that a breakout to the $35,000 to $38,000 range cannot be ruled out from the current price action.
Bitcoin fell about 78% in the last bear cycle before starting its next major expansion. This cycle may be less deep due to ETFs and institutional participation, but still, $50,000 should not be automatically assumed as the minimum just because everyone is watching it.
The chart suggests that Bitcoin is cheap, but not yet safe
The rainbow chart added to the analysis by Winter Soldier shows that Bitcoin is now in the “Buy!” zone. range, the price spent 24 days in this range compared to an average of 18 days. This makes Bitcoin appear discounted relative to its long-term logarithmic trend.
The chart also shows only a 5.5% decline to the lower band and a 27.2% move to the upper band, which is another sign that Bitcoin is closer to the lower end of the historical value range than the upper end.
However, the problem for bulls is the price structure Not confirmed yet reverse. Bitcoin printed heavy red candles, lower highs, lower lows, and the selling volume continued into the middle of the week. Everywhere you look, There is supply, not demand. If Bitcoin price bounces back to the range between $65,000 and $66,000, it will likely gather momentum lower, and This is a bull trapIt is not a buy signal.
This ruling is part of many predictions from the bearish camp that Bitcoin may still suffer one more painful leg up to $50,000 before forming a permanent bottom. Interestingly, some analysts call for… More bottom below $50,000.
Featured image of Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
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